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EU Ambassador Joao Vale de Almeida

May 4^th, I attended the European-American Business Group presentation by the Ambassador from the United Nations, Joao Vale de Almeida. The Ambassador’s speech was titled, “Three transitions, a divorce, and a virus.” The Ambassador, a former journalist in his early career, has a great command of language, and his speech was made the more interesting by nuances and his sense of humor.

The three transitions were, the period of hyper-inflation was over; knowing the rules of the game in Europe vis a vis Russia’s annexation of the Crimea, was over; and there was a crisis dealing with immigration and the 4th industrial revolution. He said the political people managing large organizations like the UN, faced challenges in dealing with these events, but pointed out it was a political process, not a dictatorship, so changes would take some time.

The divorce, was BREXIT. He opined that BREXIT was a major negative development for the U.K. He felt the remaining 27 EU countries responded quickly to develop a unified resolve to strengthen and develop the union. He noted that rules for dealing with BREXIT came together very quickly, more quickly than other resolutions. He felt the chance of a BREXIT contagion had been overcome, although the French elections were still uncertain. He suggested the BREXIT crisis would stimulate a different EU. The remaining 27 countries want to adapt and be more diverse. How to deal with the victims of globalization was something that would continue to develop.

Interestingly, the virus he spoke about was the rise of populism. He talked about political forces on the right and left that challenged the system, selling simple solutions for complex problems. He noted populism prays on fears and undermines society and political reality. As part of this he also noted, now, we don’t know who our enemy is. We don’t have a good grasp of the non-state actors and the challenges they pose.

Regarding the election of President Trump, he felt the Transatlantic Alliance would continue to be strong and grow, as it had a long history of mutual benefit.

It was a positive speech, although he underlined the challenges facing governments and organizations in today’s environment.

Birchtree Global is pleased to partner with Entelo and Bersin by Deloitte in “Attracting diverse talent: Five critical sourcing practices” presented by Stacia Sherman Garr. Ms. Garr leads Talent Management research for Bersin by Deloitte, Deloitte Consulting LLP, and is also responsible for Bersin’s research on leadership, succession, and HR practices.

While there are many approaches to attracting diverse candidates, sourcing and pipeline management is one of the most critical. As organizations attempt to increase their sourcing efficiency by narrowing their focus on high-yield sources, they may inadvertently impact their ability to attract or find diverse candidates. In this webcast, Ms. Garr will share five critical sourcing practices organizations can use to attempt to address this situation, expand their talent pools, and enhance their capability to identify diverse talent. In addition, a guest company will share their story of how they have used better sourcing and pipeline management to meaningfully impact their diversity hiring numbers.

The webinar will be on May 11 at 10:30 am PT/1:30 pm ET.

(1.0 PHR/SHRM-CP recertification credits)

In a mature economy like the United States, competitive business leader’s focus on corporate growth exceeding 2.5% to maintain a competitive edge.  How are companies responding to anemic growth to elevate financial performance?  The Denver International Executive Resource Group (IERG), and Mountain States Employers Council (MSEC) invite you to meet The Conference Board’s EVP, Chief Economist and Chief Strategy Officer Dr. Bart van Ark for an in-depth discussion of their research on uncertainty and global growth in 2017. This is an extremely well researched, up to date, fact-based discussion for senior leaders that will change or support your business strategy and economic planning for 2017.  He will discuss the qualitative growth factors, and trade policy risks emerging from their research.  As you may know, Dr. van Ark provides the research that comprises the government’s Consumer Confidence Index.  Dr. van Ark will also be revealing the latest economic projections. 

Program Details:

The meeting is scheduled for March 30, from 6:30 PM-7:45 PM. 

The location will be at Mountain States Employer’s Council, 1799 Pennsylvania Street, Denver, CO 80203

Dinner will follow at a Randolph’s restaurant at the Warwick Hotel, 1776 Grant Street Denver, CO 80203.  Dinner will feature a round-table discussion focusing on examples of strategic response by senior executives and industries.

There is no charge for invited guests for the meeting, but you must RSVP.  The dinner meal will be charged individually.

Please RSVP to:  Dr. Janet L. Walsh, walsh@birchtreeglobal.com for additional details.

Who should attend:  Senior executives (VP and above) with experience in global business who wish to acquire financial and operational advantages through access to proprietary data, would find this discussion particularly useful.  Director and manager level individuals with a need to develop global skills should attend.  Individuals who look to the Consumer Confidence Index to project future business activities will find this meeting very helpful.  Students studying economics or business, and their professors, would benefit from the discussion and the activities.  For HR leaders, this presentation is certified for 1.5 HRCI GPHR credits and 1.5 SPHR-SCP credits.

The details of the discussion and his bio are below:

Uncertainty and Global Growth in 2017 – How do They Go Together?

While the world has entered a period of greater political uncertainty, the impact on economic and business growth has been mixed so far. In the short term, uncertainties are being enjoyed by financial markets and even amongst non-financial businesses there is a positive sense of change due to new directions in fiscal policy and regulation. For the medium term, however, there are no signs yet that policy changes will alter the trend. While business needs to stay focused on strengthening qualitative growth factors, such as skills, technology and innovation, possible disruptive forces from trade policies create substantial downside risks around the medium-term growth outlook.

Some key learnings from this presentation are:

-An understanding of the growth projections and underlying drivers for countries and regions around the world.

-Assess the key risk and opportunities around the world from the new U.S. administration, Brexit, and the relationships with Russia and China.

-Obtain an informed view about the differences between trends, shocks and disruptions, and how businesses can respond to each of those.

-How to prepare your company for digital transformation in age of rising labor and skill shortages

Dr. Bart van Ark – Executive Vice President, Chief Economist & Chief Strategy Officer:

Dr. Bart van Ark is Executive Vice President, Chief Economist & Chief Strategy Officer of The Conference Board, a global research organization with its head office in New York City in the United States. He leads a team of almost two dozen economists in New York, Brussels and Beijing, who produce a range of widely watched economic indicators and growth forecasts, as well as in-depth global economic research. Van Ark is also responsible for the development of the strategy and major new initiatives of The Conference Board. Van Ark has extensively published in leading national and international journals, including the Journal of Economic Perspectives, The Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, and Economic Policy.  From 2004-2008 he has been managing editor of the Review of Income and Wealth. He is also frequently featured in major international business media, including Bloomberg, CNBC, the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal.  Van Ark is also a Professor in Economic Development, Technological Change and Growth at the University of Groningen (The Netherlands) where he has specialized in the areas of economic growth, development economics, economic history and international economics and business. He is an internally acclaimed expert in the field of international comparative productivity measurement and analysis. He is the former director of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre, a research group working on long term economic growth and productivity, of which he still is a member.

The Denver IERG:

The IERG (www.iergonline.org) is a strategic resource for senior leaders with significant global experience.  The Denver IERG exists to support global business leaders with resources, information, education, and connections, which provide competitive advantage.  The Denver IERG offers public meetings for members and their staff to develop and expand their global business knowledge.  Other resources available only to the members include: Education, certification, resources, surveys, studies, executive job openings, market research, contacts, and information.

Birchtree Global is committed to peer reviewed research and life-long learning. Birchtree Global is speaking at or sponsoring the following programs:

Global Business Risks and Challenges

Date: March 7, 2017, Richmond, VA

Speaker: Dr. Janet L. Walsh will be the keynote speaker for the 11th Annual Virginia Commonwealth University 2017 RISC Trends Conference in Richmond, VA.

Topic:  There are three major categories of workforce risks-Risks from not having the right workforce information; Risks from not having the right people; and Safety risks from not taking care of people resources. How do global businesses recognize risks, evaluate risks, and respond to risks? Dr. Janet L. Walsh answers these questions and provides examples of what companies do to reduce risk and improve their competitive position in the global market.

4.0 GPHR and 4.0 SPHR recertification credits

Audience: Global HR and business professionals, insurance professionals

To register: https://business.vcu.edu/departments-and-centers/risk-and-insurance-studies-center/risc-conference/

Can Employees Really ‘Go Local’?

Date: March 9, 2017, New York, NY

Speakers: Sean Luitjens, Strategy and Product Executive Director, AIRINC, and Lisa Johnson, Global Practice Leader, Consulting Services, Crown World Mobility

Topic: Can employees really ‘go local’ when they transfer to another country? More companies are trying it. Localization, local-to-local, Local Plus mobility approaches aren’t new in our industry but they are gaining popularity as a result of a few key shifts. Join global mobility experts Lisa Johnson from Crown World Mobility and Sean Luitjens from AIRINC as they discuss how organizations have successfully implemented localization programs, a few of the continuing challenges and connect with other HR professionals.GPHR and 1.0 SHRM recertification credits.

Audience: Global HR and business professionals

To register: https://www.forum-expat-management.com/users/18306-cathy-heyne/posts/14873-fem-new-york-chapter-meeting-03-09-17?inf_contact_key=656369909f1147262a062ad8481cf71baad5e195ecd49193f4c396edfd0baee6

HR Considerations in Cuba Market Entry

Date: March 10, 2017, Webinar

Speaker: Dr. Janet L. Walsh

Topic: Dr. Janet L. Walsh will present a summary of her doctoral research on Cuba market entry, specifically focused on implications for HR leaders. This program describes in detail how the HR leader will play a critically important role in Cuba market entry. Lessons learned from successful companies show HR leaders play a pivotal role in shaping the skills and experience companies need to be successful in this country. This talk has broad implications for HR leaders in developing nimble, responsive and connected organizations.

1.5 GPHR and 1.5 SPHR-SPC recertification credits

Audience: Global HR and business leaders

To register: https://attendee.gototraining.com/rt/699959378525364482

Uncertainty and Global Growth in 2017 – How do They Go Together?

Date: March 30, 2017, Denver, CO

Speaker: Dr. Bart van Ark, EVP and senior economist and senior strategist The Conference Board

Topic: While the world has entered a period of greater political uncertainty, the impact on economic and business growth has been mixed so far. In the short term, uncertainties are being enjoyed by financial markets and even amongst non-financial businesses there is a positive sense of change due to new directions in fiscal policy and regulation. For the medium term, however, there are no signs yet that policy changes will alter the trend. While business needs to stay focused on strengthening qualitative growth factors, such as skills, technology and innovation, possible disruptive forces from trade policies create substantial downside risks around the medium-term growth outlook. Some key learnings from this presentation are: -Help business leaders understand the growth projections and underlying drivers for countries and regions around the world. -Assess the key risk and opportunities around the world, in particular from the new U.S. administration, Brexit, and the relationships with Russia and China. -Obtain an informed view about the differences between trends, shocks and disruptions, and how businesses leaders can respond to each of those. -How to prepare your company for digital transformation in age of rising labor and skill shortages.

1 GPHR and 1 SHRM SPC recertification credits.

Audience: Senior Executives, VP and above

For more information contact: walsh@birchtreeglobal.com

IERG GLOBAL BUSINESS WEBINARS

Birchtree Global and McAleer Gray sponsors the Denver International Executive Resource Group in Denver, CO. The IERG (www.iergonline.org) sponsors webinars for members and invited guests. For 2017 the webinars include the following subjects:

Global business leaders interested in attending a program please contact walsh@birchtreeglobal.com for additional information.

Intended audience: Senior global executives

GLOBAL BUSINESS LEADERSHIP & GOVERNANCE

– Advisory Board Opportunities in Europe

– Landing US Board Seats

– 21st Century Leadership: 20th Century Leaders Would Fail

TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION IN GLOBAL ENTERPRISES

– CyberSecurity ; Beyond anti-virus

– Aligning business strategy with search engine optimization, (SEO), for improved online presence and return on investment

– Big Data

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

– Good Times, Bad Times, Investments in a Volatile Election Year

RECRUITING & TALENT MANAGEMENT IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT

– Finding Authentic High Potential Talent in the Crowd

GLOBAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES

– Re-crafting Global Strategy in a Volatile World

Consider this question, “Should the US Supreme Court Justices consider foreign law when interpreting US law and the Constitution?  This is an important question affecting global businesses with operations in multiple countries.  I recently attended a discussion on this subject between US Supreme Court Associate Justice Stephen Breyer and Lord Jonathan Sumption of the Supreme Court of the UK.  Their discussion centered on whether or not the use of comparative law compromises the rule of law.

You might think this was a fairly obscure, dense, discussion between stuffy, legal minds about a rarely encountered problem-but then, you would be wrong.  The discussion between the two Supreme Court Justices was lively, enlightening, educational, witty, and….funny.  According to Justice Breyer, almost 30% of cases he reviews raise legal issues whereby studying how the rule of law is applied in foreign countries contributes to decision-making.

It makes sense when you consider the common origins of US law in English Common Law, as well as legal rules spanning multi-jurisdictions.  For example the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act applies to certain US corporations and has legal implications overseas.  Prosecuting a case involves questions of legal certainty, equality, access to justice, and fair trial.  Other issues where the rule of law in one country might be connected to the rule of law in another country include corruption, terrorism, migration, investment, pollution, crime, human rights.

The program was sponsored by the New York Bar Association in conjunction with three organizations that exist to promote the rule of law both within countries and in the wider international environment.  The International Rule of Law Project Inc., (www.irolp.org) is a US non-profit which sponsors research and programs on the subject.  They partner with the British Institution of International and Comparative Law (www.biicl.org) and the Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law (www.binghamcentre.biicl.org).  More information on this subject is available from these websites.  I would encourage those in executive leadership positions with global businesses, particularly the legal, tax, and HR professions, to consider how their global trade activities might be part of a multi-jurisdictional discussion.

October is the month in which organizations large and small begin their strategic planning activities for the next year.  For companies expanding overseas or looking to increase their financial performance in specific industries “Gross Domestic Product” or GDP, is a frequently used metric measure.  GDP is broadly defined as the total value of production within a country’s boundaries.  GDP is a useful measure of a country’s economic health, but there are some caveats to consider, particularly when thinking about foreign direct investment (FDI) in specific countries.  Using only the general measure of GDP may not be as accurate a measure of economic health as would be uncovered in more substantial research.

For example, GDP is not designed to measure economic inequality, living standards, health, environmental pollution, and home worker output.  GDP also does not measure whether or not the output is produced by a small number of wealthy individuals or produced by the entire population’s efforts.  GDP does not tell you if the output is the result of multiple industries or the result of only a few industries or natural resources.

For better strategic planning consider supplementing the GDP measure to include alternative GDP numbers such as Real GDP (GDP + Price Index); Net Domestic Product (NDP) (GDP-capital consumption allowance).  There are many macroeconomic ways to measure economic information, these are just two.

An excellent report to access is the 2015 Trade and Development Report from the United Nations Council on Trade and Economic Development.  We use this report at Birchtree Global, coupled with others to look at FDI trends worldwide.  It can be accessed from: http://unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationWebflyer.aspx?publicationid=1358.  The report notes recovery in developed countries and challenges in developing/transition economies suggest the global crisis lingers.  The main concern is “insufficient global demand, combined with financial fragility and instability, and growing inequality.”  Early demand from our clients suggests continued expansion into Germany, China, India, Mexico, Ireland, the UK, Vietnam, Singapore, and Canada, coupled with growing interest in Cuba as a potential destination.  Cuba, for example, is one country that would use a variation of measures in addition to GDP to account for economic and social progress.

For additional information consider the following resources:

Chamberlin, G. (2011). Gross domestic product, real income and economic welfare. Economic & Labour Market Review, 5(5), 5-25.

The Economist.  (2015, October 13).  Money Talks: The GDP Conundrum.  The Economist.com.

The United Nationals Council on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).  Multiple resources.  (http://unctad.org/en/Pages/Publications.aspx)

A challenging activity at year end is strategic planning for the upcoming period.  Gathering and correctly interpreting information from multiple research-based sources increases planning accuracy.  Companies with current or future global markets for products and services will find the October 3, 2015 Economist Magazine special report on the United States in the world economy to be of interest.  While companies may find overall negativity in economic reports (weak global demand for products and services, drop in commodity prices, lower inflation, and anemic corporate performance) growth in specific countries and markets exist.  The option to leverage greater growth in foreign markets allows more choices than remaining fixed in only one country or market.  However the Federal Reserve Bank’s anticipated tightening may well disrupt emerging markets.  Those businesses looking to invest in emerging markets might review the Economist article as well as the most recent World Bank’s research reports.  Opportunities exist, but they require digging and research.

From the perspective of twenty-five years in foreign direct investment in developing countries, the rush to “develop” business operations in Cuba resembles a stampede of cattle.  But, as every cattle baron knows, the profitable way to drive cattle to market is slowly-so they don’t lose weight.  The stampede is really about first mover advantage.  Consider the pros and cons of first mover advantage when thinking about doing business in an emerging market.

First mover advantage is tricky.  Research shows it does not always result in financial or operational advantages.  First mover advantage may allow firms to develop meaningful relationships with government officials, develop franchise opportunities, and work with better employees.

However, first mover advantage is affected by timing, strategic choices, company resources, and investments.  These complex decisions are made by the business executives charged with managing market entry.  Market entry decisions made by individuals and groups of individuals in a company are ordinarily complex.  Managers select the best market entry processes based on something less than full knowledge.  When decisions are made in a rushed environment, without full knowledge of the political, economic, financial, human capital, and regulatory environment, first mover advantage disappears.  Effective managerial decision-making in market entry involves the way in which managers minimize transaction costs and maximize real option value creation.

New market entry is facilitated by developing meaningful relationships with government and financial officials, leveraging human capital capabilities, mutual education in cross cultural objectives, knowledge of legal rights and processes, and risk management.  Research suggests innovation by late movers can overcome first mover advantages.  There is a road map.  In emerging market planned economies, the political and economic environments are evolving.  As such advantages gained from a first-mover strategy may not be retained over time as the country evolves.

Successful first mover organizations entering these types of markets have developed a robust network of professionals to provide experiential advice and counsel.  Successful first movers develop good relationships with government and community officials.  Above all, successful first movers are well organized.  They have a well thought out strategy delivered across a strong communication and technology platform that links business activities to the customer.  Human resources, finance, and operations are cross-functionally connected across mechanisms such as lean or total quality management.  Training and continuous learning for home and host operations is embedded in the company’s DNA.

With developing markets in planned economies consider how China and Vietnam have developed into robust trading partners.  Both large and small firms have successfully created business operations of mutual value in these markets.  However, note until the Helms-Burton Act is overturned by the United States Congress, the Cuban market is highly restricted to United States foreign direct investment.  Now is the time to make haste slowly.  Get to market with your investment intact when it is legal to do so.

Birchtree Global has acquired a new learning management system (LMS) to facilitate information sharing between clients and our in-network business partners.   The objective of the program is to share the peer-reviewed research, webinars, podcasts, white papers, and pamphlets produced by our leading professional service firm partners.  This material incorporates both rigorous academic standards as well as applied business knowledge.  It allows our customers continual access to updates and information on legal, financial, tax, and human resources global business subjects.  It allows our in-network business partners a way to stay in touch with their Birchtree customers.

The new LMS will give Birchtree an expanded delivery platform and include multiple options for training and organizing in the virtual classroom. Individual training programs can be configured for online learning, independent learning, and group discussions.  Materials can be used with embedded videos, text, books, podcasts, tests, and quizzes.  Live streaming video of the instructor and students is a helpful feature.  Participants can ask questions of the instructor, each other, work alone or in teams.

Our clients will benefit from this expanded LMS which offers much more connectivity with the instructor and material than older webinar technology.  Clients will be continually updated on specific business themes, rather then falling behind in their global knowledge.  If you would like to see a demonstration of the LMS or learn more, please contact us at information@birchtreeglobal.com.